NFL DRAFT: How GOOD Is Caleb Williams Actually?

Sure the Bears haven’t drafted Caleb Williams yet, but we all know the Bears have already taken him with their number one draft pick. All of this will be officially confirmed on April 25th.  

The real question is will Caleb Williams be the next Bryce Young or will he play like C.J. Stroud? The truth is drafting QBs with a top-5 pick is a risky business, often falling short of the high expectations placed on them. The reality is Tom Brady was a late-round draft pick and Patrick Mahomes was passed up by 9 other teams before the Chiefs selected him at 10.

Now there have been 11 QBs selected in the top ten in the last 5 years. Those QBs are Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, and Daniel Jones.

At this point, it's clear that Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Bryce Young, and Daniel Jones have not even come close to living up to their expectations. As for Lawrence, Murray, and Tagovailoa, they have proved to be good QBs, but have not reached the level of being a great QB in the NFL. That leaves us Burrow and Herbert who have come close to matching the expectations their teams had when they drafted them. For those math majors that’s less than 20% of the top-tier QBs taken in the last 5 years who fall into the great, NFL QB category. 

As for Caleb Williams, he is very similar statistically to many previous QBs who were selected in the top 5. He has passed for over 4,000 yards in a season and posted a completion percentage near 70%. In 2023, he threw 30 TDs against 5 picks which statistically places him right in the company of a wide variety of other QBs who have gone high in the first round of past NFL drafts. 

So what makes Caleb Williams unlike many of those QBs who have failed before him?  Let’s start with one of the most important factors - the situation he is going into. He is not joining a team that won 2 games last year he is joining a team that is now 3 years into a rebuild and won 7 games last season.

The Bears also hired Shane Waldron as their new offensive coordinator, Waldron has worked with a variety of top quarterbacks including Jared Goff, Russell Wilson, and most recently Geno Smith, whose career he helped revitalize in Seattle.

Williams is coming into the league with considerable receiving talent and a group of solid running backs. Sure the Bears new offensive coordinator Waldron will most likely focus more on the run game earlier in the season, but that doesn’t mean Williams won't have the opportunity to run the Bears passing offense. Remember, he was extremely successful running the USC Trojans' pro-style offense and unlike Bryce Young, he is coming into the league with a keen ability to read defenses.

The ability to read defenses is something that Williams does as well as Stroud, at least coming out of college. Williams also has experience dealing with offensive lines that continually break down. Oftentimes, top-tier QBs enter the NFL sitting behind great o-lines, that was not the case for Williams this past season at USC. 

On the field, Williams certainly has proven to be an excellent decision-maker and has the arm strength to make all the throws, including deep bombs that would make even Al Davis smile.

So will Williams be successful, the answer is he is going into a situation that is considerably better than what Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud walked into last season. Williams clearly has the physical and mental toughness needed to be successful in the NFL and I would expect him to put up similar numbers to Strouds' rookie season.